Thu, Oct 24, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 2, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 215 | 011 | 233 |
| NYR | 310 | 14 | 210 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:41NYRArtemi PanarinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 14:32NYRBrett HowdenAssists: Jesper Fast, Brendan Lemieux · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 19:22NYRRyan StromeGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Tony DeAngelo · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 4:17BUFMarco ScandellaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 13:20NYRTony DeAngeloAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 19:11BUFVladimir SobotkaAssists: Kyle Okposo, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 7:57NYRRyan StromeAssists: Brett Howden · Snap, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 18:44NYRChris KreiderAssists: Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:54BUFConor Sheary: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:33NYRChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:42NYRLias Andersson: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:06BUFJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:00BUFJeff Skinner: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:00BUFJeff Skinner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:08NYRChris Kreider: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:51NYRTony DeAngelo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Olofsson – Eichel10:32
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Vesey – Sheary – Mittelstadt4:14
xG 0.07–0.20 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons5:31
xG 0.09–0.31 (23%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Sobotka – Johansson – Skinner10:06
xG 0.36–0.73 (33%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Dahlin4:02
xG 0.31–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Scandella – Jokiharju4:55
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Miller – Jokiharju2:00
xG 0.06–0.02 (77%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Lemieux – Howden8:07
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Strome – Buchnevich – Panarin10:28
xG 0.64–0.66 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko7:46
xG 0.12–0.32 (26%)attempts 4–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – DeAngelo7:21
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Staal – Fox8:10
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Trouba – Hajek11:32
xG 0.45–0.48 (49%)attempts 6–20goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).