Thu, Oct 24, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Florida Panthers 5, Calgary Flames 6 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 05 | 27 | 38 | 03 | 0 | 523 |
| CGY | 18 | 14 | 39 | 03 | 2 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:43CGYAustin CzarnikAssists: TJ Brodie, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 4:28FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 11:59CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Michael Frolik, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 15:15FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 0:32CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Michael Frolik, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 5:16CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 6:20FLAJoshua BrownSHAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 8:41FLAEvgenii DadonovSHAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–4
- P3 14:59FLAMark PysykSHAssists: Denis Malgin, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 17:17CGYSam BennettPPAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. CGY Sean Monahan scored
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. CGY Matthew Tkachuk scored
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:48CGYSam Bennett: Elbowing2 min
- P1 7:26CGYTravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:26FLARiley Stillman: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:44FLAAleksander Barkov: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:46CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:17FLAJoshua Brown: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 4:28FLADenis Malgin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Huberdeau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Hunt – Acciari9:29
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:14
xG 0.74–0.49 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 4–2
- Boyle – Hoffman – Connolly10:55
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Ekblad15:53
xG 0.99–0.53 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 3–1
- Yandle – Brown7:34
xG 0.62–0.25 (71%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Yandle – Stralman2:28
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan11:29
xG 0.88–0.40 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk8:58
xG 0.87–0.55 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 2–2
- Bennett – Mangiapane – Ryan11:34
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Lucic – Jankowski – Czarnik8:08
xG 0.07–0.13 (36%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin15:31
xG 1.03–0.30 (77%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Giordano – Brodie17:07
xG 0.72–0.98 (42%)attempts 12–15goals 3–4
- Andersson – Kylington12:08
xG 0.50–0.82 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).