Fri, Oct 25, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Arizona Coyotes 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 16 | 25 | 26 | 517 |
| NJD | 216 | 18 | 011 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:29NJDSami VatanenAssists: Jack Hughes, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 18:26NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Sami Vatanen · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 19:43ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 2:01ARIMichael GrabnerSHAssists: Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 13:07NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Jack Hughes, Matt Tennyson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 13:38ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Lawson Crouse · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 1:45ARIBarrett HaytonGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 18:20ARIClayton KellerENAssists: Phil Kessel, Jason Demers · Snap, 0.59 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:54NJDSami Vatanen: Interference2 min
- P1 14:23ARIDerek Stepan: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:20ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:30ARICarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:23NJDMirco Mueller: Interference2 min
- P2 6:54ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:59NJDTaylor Hall: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:14ARIVinnie Hinostroza: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Garland – Hayton9:20
xG 0.28–0.20 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Soderberg – Fischer – Crouse9:17
xG 0.17–0.23 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Grabner – Stepan – Hinostroza7:47
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kessel – Dvorak – Keller12:30
xG 0.22–0.36 (38%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson17:37
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Capobianco – Lyubushkin9:03
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun16:08
xG 0.06–0.54 (10%)attempts 3–17goals 0–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Simmonds – Coleman11:22
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Hall – Hughes11:05
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Hayden – Wood – Rooney9:15
xG 0.19–0.07 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Gusev – Zacha – Hischier7:40
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Severson16:36
xG 0.62–0.10 (87%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Greene – Vatanen12:31
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Tennyson – Mueller10:53
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).