Fri, Oct 25, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 2, Detroit Red Wings 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 114 | 15 | 225 |
| DET | 012 | 08 | 021 | 041 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:40BUFJake McCabeGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 1:15BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Victor Olofsson, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–0
Penalties (6)
- P2 0:50BUFVictor Olofsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:50DETAndreas Athanasiou: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:19DETTaro Hirose: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:23DETTrevor Daley: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:34BUFKyle Okposo: Interference2 min
- P3 17:50BUFColin Miller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt8:06
xG 0.29–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel9:22
xG 0.41–0.48 (46%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons11:28
xG 0.30–0.41 (43%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Johansson – Skinner10:10
xG 0.08–0.64 (11%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilmour – Jokiharju2:20
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Gilmour11:18
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin9:37
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Athanasiou – Mantha11:47
xG 0.34–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Svechnikov – Hirose5:30
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Helm – Bertuzzi – Larkin12:26
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- de la Rose – Ehn – Smith6:18
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Hronek12:41
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Daley – Bowey12:09
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Green – Cholowski15:07
xG 0.47–0.82 (36%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).