Sat, Oct 26, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 15 | 115 | 011 | 231 |
| MTL | 219 | 09 | 310 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:43MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 12:34MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Joel Armia · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 19:44TORJake MuzzinAssists: Mitch Marner, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 5:52TORAndreas JohnssonAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 0:07MTLJoel ArmiaPPGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–3
- P3 7:40MTLJonathan DrouinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 11:53MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Nate Thompson, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:57TORJake Muzzin: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:37MTLJonathan Drouin: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:59TORAlexander Kerfoot: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJohnsson – Nylander – Matthews13:53
xG 0.84–0.54 (61%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Spezza – Kapanen – Moore11:00
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Marner – Mikheyev13:15
xG 0.63–1.11 (36%)attempts 16–14goals 1–2
- Shore – Gauthier – Timashov8:42
xG 0.10–0.74 (12%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Ceci16:50
xG 1.16–1.00 (54%)attempts 16–21goals 1–1
- Holl – Gravel12:02
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Barrie19:27
xG 0.22–1.51 (13%)attempts 15–23goals 1–3
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Drouin – Domi13:35
xG 0.89–0.23 (80%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault15:31
xG 1.12–0.83 (57%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
- Thompson – Cousins – Suzuki7:41
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi6:18
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot17:23
xG 1.04–0.50 (68%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Reilly – Fleury10:55
xG 0.99–0.46 (68%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Weber – Mete16:14
xG 0.82–0.82 (50%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).