Sat, Oct 26, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Nashville Predators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 112 | 012 | 114 | 12 | 340 |
| TBL | 07 | 215 | 08 | 00 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:24NSHCalle JarnkrokPPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 0:32TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 9:25TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 14:47NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 3:15NSHRyan EllisGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Colton Sissons · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:28TBLLuke Witkowski: Holding2 min
- P1 13:54TBLOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:26NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:54NSHMatt Irwin: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:17TBLPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:14NSHNick Bonino: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:11NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:31TBLRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 1:11TBLMathieu Joseph: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Turris – Grimaldi3:55
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Granlund – Sissons – Arvidsson4:15
xG 0.17–0.11 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Arvidsson7:24
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Richard3:10
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ekholm – Fabbro15:15
xG 0.68–0.71 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Irwin8:44
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis15:46
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point12:43
xG 0.72–0.21 (77%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Killorn – Gourde – Cirelli12:09
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Joseph9:17
xG 0.21–0.27 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Hedman6:44
xG 0.40–0.09 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sergachev4:22
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Coburn – Hedman4:32
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).