Sun, Oct 27, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Los Angeles Kings 1, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 012 | 116 | 139 |
| CHI | 112 | 38 | 16 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33CHIDylan StromeAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Slater Koekkoek · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 2:26CHIDavid KampfGWGAssists: Alex Nylander, Dominik Kubalik · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 15:55CHIDylan StromeAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 19:02CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Strome, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 3:35LAKSean WalkerAssists: Alex Iafallo, Austin Wagner · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 17:53CHIDrake CaggiulaAssists: Slater Koekkoek, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:36LAKBlake Lizotte: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:56CHICalvin de Haan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:14LAKIlya Kovalchuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:24CHIAndrew Shaw: Holding2 min
- P3 12:18CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:34LAKKyle Clifford: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:34CHISlater Koekkoek: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Lewis – Kempe5:42
xG 0.75–0.24 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Clifford – Toffoli – Lizotte2:47
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Clifford – Prokhorkin – Wagner6:11
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Brown – Prokhorkin3:48
xG 0.11–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRyan – Roy14:40
xG 1.45–0.56 (72%)attempts 21–9goals 0–2
- Martinez – Walker14:07
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Doughty – Hutton15:23
xG 0.37–1.06 (26%)attempts 11–12goals 0–3
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestCarpenter – Strome – DeBrincat8:48
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 8–8goals 3–0
- Kubalik – Nylander – Kampf9:02
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Toews – Kane – Caggiula11:18
xG 0.57–0.73 (44%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Shaw – Saad – Dach8:55
xG 0.20–0.52 (27%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Koekkoek13:58
xG 0.48–0.53 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 3–0
- Gustafsson – Gilbert13:18
xG 0.62–0.78 (44%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
- Keith – de Haan16:53
xG 0.60–0.90 (40%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).