Tue, Oct 29, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Washington Capitals 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 18 | 112 | 16 | 433 |
| TOR | 17 | 110 | 114 | 00 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40TORAndreas JohnssonAssists: Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 10:47WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 7:59WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 19:27TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Tyson Barrie, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 1:46TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 4:10WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 4:00WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Jakub Vrana · Slap, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (17)
- P1 3:10TORMorgan Rielly: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:15WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:55TORJustin Holl: Interference2 min
- P1 16:47WSHJakub Vrana: Holding2 min
- P1 18:04WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:34WSHT.J. Oshie: Holding2 min
- P2 6:31TORAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:53TORCody Ceci: Holding2 min
- P2 10:57WSHMichal Kempny: Interference2 min
- P2 15:20WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min
- P3 1:27WSHTom Wilson: Charging2 min · PPG
- P3 1:27TORFrederik Gauthier: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:27WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:40TORJustin Holl: Interference2 min
- P3 16:46WSHRadko Gudas: Delaying game2 min
- OT 0:21TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:20TORMitch Marner: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kerfoot won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana7:14
xG 0.29–0.17 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:25
xG 0.50–0.47 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
- Hagelin – Eller – Hathaway6:37
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Dowd – Boyd – Leipsic2:06
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Siegenthaler5:03
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Carlson – Kempny10:00
xG 0.53–0.48 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Carlson – Orlov3:20
xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Marner – Mikheyev10:18
xG 0.89–0.21 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Shore – Gauthier – Timashov5:02
xG 0.10–0.04 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Nylander – Matthews10:06
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
- Spezza – Kapanen – Moore4:32
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Ceci11:24
xG 1.24–0.52 (70%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Barrie – Rielly2:51
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Holl – Ceci2:16
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).