Tue, Oct 29, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 015 | 19 | 130 |
| PIT | 416 | 212 | 19 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57PITJustin SchultzAssists: Dominik Kahun · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:13PITJared McCannGWGAssists: Dominik Kahun, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 8:46PITDominik SimonAssists: Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P1 14:02PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Dominik Simon, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.07 xG0–4
- P2 16:40PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Dominik Simon · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–5
- P2 17:00PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Jack Johnson, Brandon Tanev · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–6
- P3 1:57PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Sean Couturier, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.08 xG1–6
- P3 19:53PITDominik KahunAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:29PHIRobert Hagg: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:56PITPatric Hornqvist: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:49PHIRobert Hagg: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:08PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:32PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
- P3 4:45PITNick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:56PITZachary Aston-Reese: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:56PHIJustin Braun: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:54PITJohn Marino: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Lindblom2:43
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stewart – Couturier – Lindblom2:15
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Couturier – Lindblom – Konecny4:39
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee4:29
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Braun – Sanheim11:36
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 9–13goals 0–3
- Gostisbehere – Hagg12:39
xG 0.34–0.83 (29%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Provorov12:26
xG 0.37–0.91 (29%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Simon10:28
xG 1.16–0.16 (88%)attempts 17–9goals 3–0
- Rust – McCann – Kahun7:59
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese10:41
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Bjugstad – Galchenyuk8:09
xG 0.26–0.88 (23%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Marino14:11
xG 0.82–0.29 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Schultz – Pettersson12:45
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Letang – Dumoulin13:52
xG 1.05–0.97 (52%)attempts 19–15goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).