Tue, Oct 29, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Edmonton Oilers 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 06 | 09 | 117 | 132 |
| DET | 213 | 010 | 15 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Taro Hirose, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.38 xG0–1
- P1 8:33DETPatrik NemethGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Madison Bowey · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 12:48EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:18DETFilip HronekENAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.45 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:19EDMLeon Draisaitl: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:50DETDarren Helm: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:27EDMJames Neal: Interference2 min
- P2 11:07EDMEthan Bear: Holding2 min
- P2 13:19DETDarren Helm: Interference2 min
- P3 13:09DETAndreas Athanasiou: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:09EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:35DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira10:51
xG 0.92–0.16 (85%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Jurco – Russell5:18
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Neal – Chiasson – Haas7:55
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid15:06
xG 0.32–0.75 (30%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear16:23
xG 1.21–0.96 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Manning – Benning7:53
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Russell – Klefbom13:49
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Athanasiou – Mantha11:13
xG 0.85–0.29 (75%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Helm – Bertuzzi – Larkin10:48
xG 0.64–0.28 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- de la Rose – Ehn – Smith4:42
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Erne – Hirose6:23
xG 0.15–0.63 (19%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Hronek15:18
xG 0.97–0.47 (67%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Green – Hicketts14:34
xG 0.79–0.85 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Daley – Green3:09
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).