Wed, Oct 30, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 29 | 210 | 012 | 431 |
| CBJ | 05 | 112 | 07 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:11EDMJames NealPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 17:02EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 1:20EDMJujhar KhairaAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Sam Gagner · Deflected, 0.24 xG3–0
- P2 4:56EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Zack Kassian · Snap, 0.23 xG4–0
- P2 6:55CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Slap, 0.10 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:12CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Holding2 min
- P1 7:28CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:59CBJSonny Milano: Interference2 min
- P2 5:06EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:52EDMZack Kassian: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:05EDMEthan Bear: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:39CBJSonny Milano: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:45CBJSonny Milano: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – McDavid – Russell3:30
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid10:25
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Gagner – Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira8:34
xG 0.70–0.61 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Granlund – Russell3:17
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Benning12:48
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Nurse – Bear14:26
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Persson15:34
xG 0.88–0.73 (55%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Dubois7:57
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Wennberg2:17
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg7:03
xG 0.36–0.54 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
- Nash – Bemstrom – Lilja6:47
xG 0.01–0.22 (5%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski15:33
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Kukan – Gavrikov9:34
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Savard – Nutivaara13:30
xG 0.57–0.84 (41%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).