Wed, Oct 30, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Montréal Canadiens 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 110 | 213 | 436 |
| ARI | 014 | 08 | 111 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:22MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Tomas Tatar, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 0:24MTLShea WeberGWGAssists: Victor Mete, Phillip Danault · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 1:17MTLNick CousinsAssists: Nick Suzuki, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–0
- P3 4:47ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Phil Kessel, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 11:03MTLJonathan DrouinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:00ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:49MTLTomas Tatar: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:54MTLMike Reilly: Holding2 min
- P2 11:18ARIJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:14MTLShea Weber: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault9:20
xG 0.81–0.34 (70%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Thompson – Cousins – Suzuki9:09
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Byron – Danault – Lehkonen2:05
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Kotkaniemi2:44
xG 0.05–0.01 (78%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot17:33
xG 0.76–0.42 (64%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Weber – Mete15:17
xG 0.71–0.66 (52%)attempts 19–19goals 2–0
- Reilly – Fleury12:15
xG 0.75–0.88 (46%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Stepan – Hinostroza4:23
xG 0.53–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Kessel – Dvorak – Keller5:58
xG 0.41–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Crouse – Garland4:05
xG 0.18–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Fischer – Crouse4:36
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun16:33
xG 0.92–0.48 (66%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Ness – Lyubushkin9:26
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson15:17
xG 0.44–0.99 (31%)attempts 12–25goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).