Thu, Oct 31, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 6, Nashville Predators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 14 | 05 | 414 | 14 | 627 |
| NSH | 215 | 212 | 17 | 02 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:33NSHNick BoninoAssists: Craig Smith, Ryan Ellis · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 10:15NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Colton Sissons, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 15:27CGYDerek RyanAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 4:36NSHCalle JarnkrokSHAssists: Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 18:52NSHCalle JarnkrokSHAssists: Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 1:58CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 13:38CGYElias LindholmAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 16:39CGYAlan QuineAssists: Mark Giordano, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- P3 18:38NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Colton Sissons, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–5
- P3 19:21CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–5
- OT 4:58CGYMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:05CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:29CGYAlan Quine: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:15NSHCraig Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 3:40NSHKyle Turris: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:06NSHKyle Turris: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:24CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Ryan – Tkachuk2:04
xG 0.18–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk4:33
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk7:31
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Quine – Bennett – Ryan2:26
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Andersson – Kylington12:38
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie14:17
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin16:06
xG 0.39–1.07 (27%)attempts 11–17goals 1–3
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg10:39
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Turris – Watson – Sissons4:03
xG 0.28–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Arvidsson8:04
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi4:47
xG 0.30–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis15:07
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Irwin8:34
xG 0.38–0.14 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Fabbro16:50
xG 0.57–0.58 (50%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).