Fri, Nov 1, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 1, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 016 | 19 | 05 | 130 |
| WSH | 411 | 18 | 115 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17WSHJakub VranaAssists: Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 6:59WSHChandler StephensonGWGAssists: Travis Boyd, Brendan Leipsic · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 9:29WSHJakub VranaAssists: Michal Kempny, Tom Wilson · Slap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P1 10:44WSHBrendan LeipsicAssists: Travis Boyd, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 10:40BUFHenri JokiharjuAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Evan Rodrigues · Slap, 0.01 xG1–4
- P2 16:53WSHTom WilsonAssists: Michal Kempny · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 13:43WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Michal Kempny, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:42WSHDmitry Orlov: Elbowing2 min
- P3 11:10WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:24BUFJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons12:19
xG 0.50–0.38 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel11:01
xG 0.58–0.47 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Sheary – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt11:41
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel3:22
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Gilmour18:07
xG 0.92–0.76 (55%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin14:45
xG 0.28–0.49 (37%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- McCabe – Ristolainen16:41
xG 0.73–1.06 (41%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana13:02
xG 0.89–0.18 (83%)attempts 15–10goals 3–1
- Hagelin – Eller – Hathaway11:26
xG 0.61–0.43 (59%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom14:59
xG 0.64–0.84 (43%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Boyd – Leipsic – Stephenson9:58
xG 0.25–0.52 (33%)attempts 3–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Siegenthaler13:12
xG 0.99–0.28 (78%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- Orlov – Gudas15:00
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov3:27
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).