Fri, Nov 1, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Winnipeg Jets 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 16 | 19 | 14 | 319 |
| SJS | 011 | 128 | 114 | 253 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:34WPGGabriel BourqueAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:18SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: Jonny Brodzinski, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 7:53WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 0:49SJSTomas HertlAssists: Evander Kane, Kevin Labanc · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 18:36WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Jack Roslovic, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:06SJSLogan Couture: Interference2 min
- P2 4:24WPGDmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:41SJSEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:11WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Perreault – Bourque – Copp10:14
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Roslovic10:42
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Shaw – Suess – Gustafsson4:38
xG 0.03–0.46 (5%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor11:54
xG 0.24–0.74 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Morrissey2:15
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Bitetto10:52
xG 0.14–0.58 (19%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Poolman – Morrissey15:15
xG 0.46–1.30 (26%)attempts 9–21goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Hertl – Labanc12:56
xG 1.03–0.20 (84%)attempts 16–3goals 0–1
- Marleau – Couture – Meier11:45
xG 0.74–0.18 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Thornton – Sorensen – Karlsson9:19
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Goodrow – Brodzinski – Gregor3:45
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon14:26
xG 1.38–0.05 (97%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic15:25
xG 1.11–0.34 (77%)attempts 19–8goals 1–2
- Heed – Ferraro9:38
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).