Sat, Nov 2, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Winnipeg Jets 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 010 | 216 | 14 | 439 |
| VGK | 310 | 08 | 06 | 02 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:19WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Gabriel Bourque · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 4:51VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Shea Theodore, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 7:00VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 8:30VGKNate SchmidtAssists: William Karlsson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 10:02WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 13:17WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.24 xG3–3
- OT 3:22WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Patrik Laine, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:35WPGPatrik Laine: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 7:35VGKJon Merrill: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 7:52WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:14WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:14VGKRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:24WPGDmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:07VGKShea Theodore: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:43VGKNick Holden: Interference2 min
- P3 9:47VGKMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Ehlers – Laine13:02
xG 0.63–0.48 (56%)attempts 24–6goals 0–0
- Perreault – Bourque – Gustafsson5:42
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:01
xG 0.48–0.62 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Lowry – Copp – Roslovic8:31
xG 0.29–0.77 (27%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Bitetto6:41
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Pionk13:17
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Kulikov3:24
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:25
xG 1.02–0.51 (66%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek5:16
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone13:18
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Eakin – Tuch – Glass3:55
xG 0.03–0.13 (16%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt16:34
xG 0.98–0.57 (63%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
- Merrill – Theodore15:53
xG 0.86–0.61 (58%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Engelland – Holden12:57
xG 0.68–0.49 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).