Mon, Nov 4, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 6, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 515 | 14 | 626 |
| DET | 15 | 010 | 09 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Filip Hronek, Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 2:00NSHNick BoninoAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:32NSHKyle TurrisGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 6:34NSHColton SissonsAssists: Ryan Ellis, Pekka Rinne · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 7:36NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
- P2 18:30NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.34 xG5–1
- P3 6:52NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.05 xG6–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:12NSHViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:23NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:11NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:54DETDylan Larkin: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 16:54DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:54NSHRyan Ellis: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:18DETBrendan Perlini: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:41DETDylan Larkin: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:18
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Turris – Duchene – Jarnkrok9:10
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Watson – Granlund – Sissons8:19
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi10:11
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber11:01
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 5–8goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro15:53
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis13:09
xG 0.61–0.58 (52%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Nielsen – Perlini – Hirose10:15
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- de la Rose – Bertuzzi – Mantha3:06
xG 0.04–0.01 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Erne8:31
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Bertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin10:11
xG 0.37–0.57 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Cholowski11:39
xG 0.68–0.45 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Hicketts – Hronek2:08
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Hronek14:04
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).