Tue, Nov 5, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 011 | 021 | 137 |
| DAL | 213 | 113 | 112 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19DALJason DickinsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 5:46DALRadek FaksaGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 19:24COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Vladislav Kamenev, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 10:54DALRadek FaksaPPAssists: John Klingberg, Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 6:49DALCorey PerryAssists: Taylor Fedun, Joel Hanley · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:19COLVladislav Kamenev: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 3:38COLJoonas Donskoi: Holding2 min
- P1 9:24COLNikita Zadorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:24DALBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:03COLNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:01DALMiro Heiskanen: Interference2 min
- P2 0:58DALJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min
- P2 9:50COLVladislav Kamenev: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:54COLJayson Megna: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge double minor4 min
- P2 15:37DALBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
- P2 17:36DALEsa Lindell: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:44DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:41DALAlexander Radulov: Holding2 min
- P3 18:37DALBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Nieto – MacKinnon5:47
xG 0.39–0.28 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Kadri – Compher – Jost4:43
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Calvert – Burakovsky – Bellemare3:29
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Megna – Nichushkin – Kamenev3:45
xG 0.06–0.35 (15%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Makar2:58
xG 0.40–0.15 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Johnson – Girard3:53
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Cole – Makar3:56
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Seguin – Gurianov6:23
xG 1.02–0.18 (85%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Perry – Dowling – Janmark3:22
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa4:50
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Benn – Dickinson6:00
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Oleksiak5:13
xG 0.48–0.02 (96%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen3:19
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell3:53
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).