Thu, Nov 7, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Arizona Coyotes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 114 | 110 | 333 |
| ARI | 116 | 17 | 09 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:14CBJGustav NyquistAssists: Seth Jones, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 11:24ARICarl SoderbergAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 12:04ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Michael Grabner, Vinnie Hinostroza · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 17:36CBJEmil BemstromPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 10:12CBJOliver BjorkstrandGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:42CBJScott Harrington: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:35ARIBarrett Hayton: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:52ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Holding2 min
- P2 17:04ARIAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:50CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:50ARIJakob Chychrun: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:33CBJAlexandre Texier: Interference2 min
- P3 5:23ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:12CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Anderson – Wennberg10:25
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Dubois7:49
xG 0.37–0.34 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 1–2
- Nash – Texier – Bemstrom7:38
xG 0.02–0.18 (12%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Jenner – Milano7:56
xG 0.19–0.58 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski13:13
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Harrington – Kukan11:10
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Savard – Gavrikov17:33
xG 0.46–0.74 (38%)attempts 17–22goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Fischer – Crouse9:14
xG 0.58–0.12 (83%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Grabner – Stepan – Hinostroza5:53
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Kessel – Schmaltz – Keller2:23
xG 0.04–0.02 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Garland – Keller7:42
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun15:37
xG 0.68–0.34 (67%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Ness – Lyubushkin7:14
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Capobianco14:43
xG 0.26–0.86 (24%)attempts 15–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).