Fri, Nov 8, 2019·Ericsson Globe, StockholmNeutral site
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 213 | 013 | 18 | 334 |
| BUF | 09 | 15 | 18 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 16:14TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 15:43BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jake McCabe · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 7:45TBLYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Patrick Maroon, Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 11:30BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:20BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:55TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P2 5:50BUFJake McCabe: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:26BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P3 4:26TBLOndrej Palat: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:26BUFJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:49TBLYanni Gourde: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:12BUFJack Eichel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Maroon – Gourde – Paquette10:44
xG 0.07–0.02 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli9:05
xG 0.04–0.00 (91%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point12:25
xG 0.06–0.03 (70%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Volkov9:56
xG 0.03–0.05 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Hedman16:39
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 23–9goals 1–0
- Schenn – Sergachev13:20
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
- McDonagh – Cernak15:00
xG 0.06–0.05 (57%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel14:45
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Johansson – Skinner – Sheary2:19
xG 0.01–0.01 (55%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Johansson – Skinner3:46
xG 0.01–0.02 (36%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Vesey – Sheary – Mittelstadt5:31
xG 0.02–0.04 (38%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McCabe – Ristolainen14:08
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Miller – Jokiharju14:15
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Montour – Dahlin14:46
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).