Fri, Nov 8, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Vancouver Canucks 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 013 | 19 | 011 | 133 |
| WPG | 09 | 219 | 27 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:53VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Troy Stecher, Brock Boeser · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 11:54WPGJack RoslovicPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 16:54WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Tucker Poolman · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 13:35WPGKyle ConnorUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 18:15WPGAdam LowryENAssists: Andrew Copp, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 8:28VANBo Horvat: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:44VANJay Beagle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:02WPGDmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:09VANSven Baertschi: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:08WPGLuca Sbisa: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Wheeler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBaertschi – Horvat – Virtanen6:24
xG 0.94–0.12 (89%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson13:18
xG 0.73–0.51 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Beagle – Schaller – Virtanen2:43
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Sutter – Leivo – Pearson7:38
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Stecher12:13
xG 1.29–0.45 (74%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Edler – Myers14:59
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hughes14:04
xG 0.85–0.46 (65%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine13:32
xG 0.86–0.84 (51%)attempts 14–14goals 2–1
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic11:24
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Shaw – Gustafsson – Luoto7:42
xG 0.01–0.60 (2%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Copp9:33
xG 0.24–1.12 (18%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Morrissey13:43
xG 0.84–0.19 (81%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Sbisa – Beaulieu15:31
xG 0.56–0.99 (36%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Pionk17:21
xG 0.29–1.51 (16%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).