Sun, Nov 10, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 2, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 212 | 011 | 00 | 228 |
| WPG | 17 | 06 | 115 | 11 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:33WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Neal Pionk, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 5:22DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Jason Dickinson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 10:27DALRadek FaksaAssists: Esa Lindell, Denis Gurianov · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 1:52WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Tucker Poolman, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 0:21WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:57DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:37DALCorey Perry: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:46WPGDmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:45DALAnton Khudobin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wheeler won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Faksa11:29
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Dowling – Janmark8:25
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Dickinson10:19
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Gurianov14:00
xG 0.46–0.73 (38%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen18:36
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Sekera – Lindell17:19
xG 0.62–0.46 (57%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Fedun – Hanley10:46
xG 0.07–0.33 (17%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Copp12:55
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic12:51
xG 0.16–0.32 (34%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Shaw – Gustafsson – Luoto5:29
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine15:59
xG 0.43–0.70 (38%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Morrissey18:20
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Pionk15:09
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Beaulieu13:28
xG 0.24–0.33 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).