Sun, Nov 10, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 13 | 09 | 219 |
| DET | 17 | 02 | 210 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:27VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 19:15DETAndreas AthanasiouPPAssists: Mike Green, Filip Hronek · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 9:04VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Nicolas Roy, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 10:57DETMadison BoweyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 19:29DETAnthony ManthaGWGAssists: Robby Fabbri, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:38DETAdam Erne: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:23VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:05VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:04DETChristoffer Ehn: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Roy8:39
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone14:38
xG 0.66–0.62 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Pirri – Eakin – Glass9:28
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:41
xG 0.19–0.49 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Holden15:38
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Theodore – Hague13:43
xG 0.36–0.51 (41%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt16:36
xG 0.22–0.44 (34%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Mantha – Perlini3:05
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Erne4:36
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin8:28
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Filppula – Athanasiou – Fabbri6:13
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Bowey8:29
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Green – Nemeth9:45
xG 0.21–0.04 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Hronek9:08
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).