Mon, Nov 11, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
Arizona Coyotes 4, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 113 | 213 | 06 | 03 | 2 | 435 |
| WSH | 012 | 19 | 211 | 02 | 0 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:15ARIClayton KellerAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 0:10ARIChristian FischerAssists: Brad Richardson · Deflected, 0.24 xG2–0
- P2 0:45ARIMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–0
- P2 8:47WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Jakub Vrana, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 2:23WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Michal Kempny · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 18:44WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WSH T.J. Oshie stopped
- 2. ARI Nick Schmaltz scored
- 3. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 4. ARI Conor Garland scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:54WSHJakub Vrana: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:00ARINick Schmaltz: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:31ARIJason Demers: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:33ARIDerek Stepan: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:49WSHT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Grabner – Fischer9:26
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Soderberg – Crouse – Garland7:34
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Keller9:14
xG 0.63–0.54 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Kessel – Schmaltz – Dvorak10:24
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson12:59
xG 1.29–0.65 (67%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- Ness – Oesterle10:33
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Demers – Oesterle2:18
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom13:26
xG 0.77–0.37 (67%)attempts 20–7goals 0–1
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana8:38
xG 0.74–0.56 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Panik – Kuznetsov – Stephenson2:36
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway6:11
xG 0.11–0.26 (29%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov9:08
xG 0.58–0.12 (83%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Orlov – Gudas8:42
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Gudas – Siegenthaler2:53
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).