Mon, Nov 11, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 2, Carolina Hurricanes 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 18 | 114 | 229 |
| CAR | 212 | 312 | 319 | 843 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44CARWarren FoegeleAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Brett Pesce · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:55CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Lucas Wallmark · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 4:06CARSebastian AhoSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–3
- P2 12:45CARHaydn FleuryAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 16:25CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.06 xG0–5
- P2 18:25OTTColin WhiteAssists: Tyler Ennis, Mark Borowiecki · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 1:07CARSebastian AhoAssists: Joel Edmundson, Brett Pesce · Deflected, 0.19 xG1–6
- P3 9:54OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Thomas Chabot, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–6
- P3 13:16CARRyan DzingelAssists: Joel Edmundson, Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–7
- P3 17:47CARJoel EdmundsonAssists: Martin Necas, Nino Niederreiter · Slap, 0.03 xG2–8
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:38OTTBobby Ryan: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:38CARBrock McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:10OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:13CARTeuvo Teravainen: Holding2 min
- P2 2:24CARJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P2 9:28OTTNick Paul: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:25OTTErik Brannstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:14CARRyan Dzingel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:55CARRyan Dzingel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:55OTTNick Paul: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Ennis – Chlapik – Beaudin3:34
xG 0.07–0.18 (28%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Chlapik – Beaudin4:37
xG 0.04–0.19 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Tierney – Duclair – Tkachuk6:52
xG 0.22–0.51 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 0–4
- Pageau – Brown – Paul10:13
xG 0.14–0.59 (19%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – DeMelo13:15
xG 0.97–0.76 (56%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Brannstrom10:58
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Chabot – Zaitsev17:44
xG 0.81–1.39 (37%)attempts 13–31goals 1–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Dzingel – Foegele11:00
xG 0.71–0.15 (82%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Gibbons – McGinn – Luostarinen8:30
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov8:18
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Niederreiter – Wallmark – Necas9:59
xG 0.58–0.75 (44%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Fleury11:45
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Slavin15:11
xG 0.62–0.44 (58%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce2:13
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).