Tue, Nov 12, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Arizona Coyotes 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 16 | 15 | 02 | 2 | 322 |
| STL | 18 | 116 | 07 | 04 | 0 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:13STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Brayden Schenn, Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 6:47ARIClayton KellerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 15:41STLColton ParaykoAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 5:58ARIConor GarlandPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Christian Dvorak · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL Tyler Bozak stopped
- 2. ARI Nick Schmaltz scored
- 3. STL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 4. ARI Conor Garland scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:31ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:43ARIJakob Chychrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:58STLSammy Blais: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 4:47STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:19ARIAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:29STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Keller11:42
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 1–2
- Soderberg – Kessel – Crouse3:13
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Dvorak – Garland2:15
xG 0.02–0.11 (13%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Fischer8:39
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin12:48
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun16:41
xG 0.22–0.70 (24%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson16:36
xG 0.20–0.68 (23%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Thomas11:24
xG 0.50–0.01 (98%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Bozak – de la Rose – Blais10:06
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – MacEachern – Barbashev8:48
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford10:21
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko10:14
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Faulk7:14
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn8:31
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).