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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 14, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa

New York Rangers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 9

Away

New York Rangers

3

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

9

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.

TBL winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR1508210323
TBL416412117945

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:39TBLLuke SchennAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:41TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
  3. P1 6:20TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
  4. P1 6:42TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
  5. P1 14:27NYRChris KreiderAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
  6. P2 7:07TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.15 xG1–5
  7. P2 10:19TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–6
  8. P2 14:17TBLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Yanni Gourde, Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–7
  9. P2 19:01TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.23 xG1–8
  10. P3 2:22NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Libor Hajek, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–8
  11. P3 12:24TBLYanni GourdePPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–9
  12. P3 15:28NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–9
Penalties (22)
  1. P1 5:36NYRBrendan Lemieux: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 5:36NYRTony DeAngelo: Slashing2 min · PPG
  3. P1 11:09TBLLuke Schenn: Holding2 min
  4. P1 18:40TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 6:32NYRArtemi Panarin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  6. P2 7:35TBLCedric Paquette: Boarding2 min
  7. P2 10:48TBLTyler Johnson: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 10:48NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 18:55NYRBrendan Lemieux: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  10. P2 18:55TBLRyan McDonagh: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 18:55NYRBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 19:16NYRMicheal Haley: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 19:16TBLLuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
  14. P2 19:16NYRMicheal Haley: Slashing2 min
  15. P2 19:16NYRMicheal Haley: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 9:40NYRRyan Lindgren: Tripping2 min
  17. P3 11:49NYRJesper Fast: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  18. P3 17:08TBLMikhail Sergachev: Misconduct10 min
  19. P3 17:08NYRBrendan Lemieux: Misconduct10 min
  20. P3 18:35TBLPatrick Maroon: High sticking2 min
  21. P3 18:35TBLPatrick Maroon: Misconduct10 min
  22. P3 18:35NYRMicheal Haley: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
45% to win55% to win
← NYR attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Point
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRTBL
23Shots on goal45
1.7Expected goals3.7
42Shot attempts73
29Faceoffs won38
4Power plays8
55Penalty minutes37
22Hits18
13Blocked shots10
2Giveaways5
3Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

New York Rangers

Forward lines

  1. Fast – Buchnevich – Chytil2:23

    xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  2. Kreider – Strome – Panarin3:10

    xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0

  3. Fast – Strome – Panarin3:48

    xG 0.01–0.11 (9%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  4. McKegg – Lemieux – Howden5:04

    xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Fox – Lindgren9:29

    xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1

  2. Smith – Skjei4:54

    xG 0.08–0.16 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1

  3. Skjei – DeAngelo4:15

    xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestJohnson – Kucherov – Point8:38

    xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1

  2. Stamkos – Palat – Verhaeghe6:34

    xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0

  3. Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli8:44

    xG 0.20–0.21 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0

  4. Maroon – Gourde – Paquette9:32

    xG 0.31–0.71 (31%)attempts 11–8goals 2–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestShattenkirk – Hedman11:10

    xG 0.44–0.18 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0

  2. Schenn – Sergachev6:58

    xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0

  3. Shattenkirk – Sergachev3:17

    xG 0.16–0.06 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 3.7 xGNYR 1.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 41/100 · #683 of 1082 this seasonSwing 0.57 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.

TBL winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).