Thu, Nov 14, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 29 | 110 | 429 |
| VAN | 08 | 212 | 014 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:45DALJustin DowlingAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 4:03DALBlake ComeauAssists: Radek Faksa, Miro Heiskanen · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 5:21VANJake VirtanenAssists: Tanner Pearson, Bo Horvat · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 11:30VANTroy StecherAssists: Jordie Benn, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 18:29DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 17:24DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Joe Pavelski · Backhand, 0.18 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:05DALDenis Gurianov: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:05VANJordie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:00DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:57VANTroy Stecher: Interference2 min
- P2 0:28DALJoe Pavelski: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:29DALRhett Gardner: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:11VANBo Horvat: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Gaudette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dowling – Seguin7:13
xG 0.74–0.15 (83%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Comeau – Faksa – Dickinson6:44
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Gurianov – Caamano6:36
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Radulov – Gardner6:57
xG 0.26–0.40 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen12:49
xG 0.92–0.50 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Sekera – Polak14:16
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Fedun – Lindell12:27
xG 0.47–0.42 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBaertschi – Miller – Gaudette6:07
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Graovac – Schaller3:31
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Horvat – Boeser4:26
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson9:03
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tanev – Hughes10:46
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes4:12
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Stecher9:52
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).