Sat, Nov 16, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Winnipeg Jets 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 17 | 211 | 19 | 427 |
| TBL | 19 | 011 | 214 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Josh Morrissey, Tucker Poolman · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 19:11TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 7:18WPGJack RoslovicAssists: Andrew Copp, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 7:39WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 17:44TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman, Anthony Cirelli · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 18:32WPGKyle ConnorENGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.54 xG4–2
- P3 19:38TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Alex Killorn, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.43 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 3:25TBLYanni Gourde: Interference2 min
- P2 7:18TBLCarter Verhaeghe: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 14:27WPGDmitry Kulikov: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:48WPGNathan Beaulieu: Holding2 min
- P3 3:34TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:07TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic9:57
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Shaw – Gustafsson – Luoto5:07
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Copp10:26
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine12:11
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Pionk15:43
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Beaulieu14:41
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Poolman – Morrissey14:46
xG 0.27–1.10 (20%)attempts 8–20goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Kucherov – Point8:52
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Verhaeghe5:49
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Killorn – Verhaeghe – Cirelli2:21
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Joseph3:40
xG 0.03–0.03 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Hedman12:23
xG 0.83–0.45 (65%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – McDonagh2:43
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Sergachev4:11
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).