Sat, Nov 16, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 0, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 012 | 014 | 037 |
| ARI | 08 | 211 | 15 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:35ARIDerek StepanGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 8:22ARICarl SoderbergAssists: Lawson Crouse, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 19:53ARILawson CrouseENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG0–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 13:03CGYMilan Lucic: Interference2 min
- P1 14:59CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:32ARIMichael Grabner: Interference2 min
- P2 1:59CGYMichael Stone: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:49ARIJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:48CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:48CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:48CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:48CGYDavid Rittich: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 19:48ARIDarcy Kuemper: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:48ARIDarcy Kuemper: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:48ARIJason Demers: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:42ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:42ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:42CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Mangiapane – Ryan8:26
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan8:23
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Lucic – Rieder – Jankowski6:30
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk8:44
xG 0.03–0.32 (8%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Kylington12:24
xG 0.63–0.05 (93%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Giordano – Andersson13:07
xG 0.59–0.09 (86%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamonic2:09
xG 0.02–0.01 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Richardson – Grabner – Fischer8:06
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Kessel – Crouse9:47
xG 0.44–0.53 (45%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Dvorak – Garland7:32
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Keller7:41
xG 0.14–0.33 (29%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Ekman-Larsson2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson13:29
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun13:10
xG 0.47–0.62 (43%)attempts 7–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).