Tue, Nov 19, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Minnesota Wild 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 212 | 111 | 13 | 426 |
| BUF | 010 | 010 | 111 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14MINZach PariseAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 19:56MINZach ParisePPGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Kevin Fiala · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 5:29MINJonas BrodinAssists: Jason Zucker, Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 16:11BUFBrandon MontourAssists: Jack Eichel, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–1
- P3 17:46MINJason ZuckerENAssists: Eric Staal, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:26BUFJake McCabe: Holding2 min
- P1 4:55MINZach Parise: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:56BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:29BUFJeff Skinner: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 7:32BUFJack Eichel: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:32BUFJack Eichel: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:24MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:40BUFBrandon Montour: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:25BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:52MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Asplund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zuccarello – Zucker7:45
xG 0.26–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin10:01
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Fiala6:59
xG 0.06–0.22 (20%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Rask – Hartman – Donato5:55
xG 0.03–0.20 (12%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba11:22
xG 0.87–0.24 (78%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Brodin – Hunt2:36
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Brodin – Soucy2:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Sheary – Rodrigues8:46
xG 0.32–0.26 (56%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Vesey – Reinhart – Eichel3:08
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt2:02
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Vesey – Lazar – Mittelstadt3:03
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen8:01
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Jokiharju6:03
xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin3:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).