Tue, Nov 19, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 317 | 03 | 433 |
| DET | 210 | 012 | 116 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:08OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 9:57DETRobby FabbriAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 18:32DETValtteri FilppulaSHAssists: Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 5:00OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Logan Brown · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 5:57OTTJean-Gabriel PageauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P2 10:22OTTBrady TkachukGWGAssists: Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 17:14DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Filip Hronek, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:29OTTRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:34DETValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:16DETMadison Bowey: Interference2 min
- P1 17:21DETTaro Hirose: Interference2 min
- P1 19:25OTTColin White: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:20OTTVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:20DETAnthony Mantha: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:01OTTLogan Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:17DETBrendan Perlini: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Brown
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Brown – Tkachuk5:14
xG 0.47–0.05 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 3–0
- Tierney – Chlapik – Veronneau5:54
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Pageau – Brown – Paul10:55
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Tierney – Duclair – Tkachuk2:40
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot13:55
xG 0.98–0.57 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 3–1
- Borowiecki – Zaitsev13:11
xG 0.77–0.49 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Goloubef11:13
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Athanasiou – Fabbri7:13
xG 0.68–0.48 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Bertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin10:58
xG 0.61–0.60 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne3:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Erne2:39
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBowey – Hronek2:26
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Bowey – Cholowski5:55
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- McIlrath – Cholowski7:58
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).