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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 19, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Ottawa Senators 4, Detroit Red Wings 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.

DET winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:44Shot by Larkin, saved by Nilsson
  3. P1 1:00Shot by Pageau, saved by Bernier
  4. P1 1:52Shot by Hronek, saved by Nilsson
  5. P1 3:08Goal by Duclair (Chabot)+19 pts WP

    On ice: DET Nielsen, Ericsson, Bowey, Perlini, Hirose · OTT DeMelo, Duclair, Chabot, Brown, Tkachuk

  6. P1 4:29Shot by Larkin, saved by Nilsson6v5
  7. P1 4:29Hainsey: Tripping (2 min)6v5

    On ice: DET Ericsson, Helm, Glendening, Erne, Bowey, Larkin · OTT Hainsey, Ennis, Goloubef, Tierney, Chlapik

  8. P1 4:34Filppula: Hooking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: DET Filppula, Green, Athanasiou, Perlini, Hronek · OTT Borowiecki, DeMelo, Pageau, Namestnikov

  9. P1 4:41Shot by Chabot, saved by Bernier4v4
  10. P1 6:12Shot by Pageau, saved by Bernier4v4
  11. P1 6:16Bowey: Interference (2 min)4v4

    On ice: DET Nielsen, Bowey, Fabbri, Cholowski · OTT Borowiecki, DeMelo, Pageau, Namestnikov

  12. P1 6:22Shot by McIlrath, saved by Nilsson3v4
  13. P1 7:05Shot by Brown, saved by Bernier4v5
  14. P1 8:12Shot by White, saved by Bernier4v5
  15. P1 9:56Shot by Fabbri, saved by Nilsson
  16. P1 9:57Goal by Fabbri (Filppula, Hronek)+20 pts WP

    On ice: DET Filppula, Athanasiou, Bowey, Fabbri, Hronek · OTT DeMelo, Chabot, Chlapik, Brown, Veronneau

  17. P1 11:23Shot by Borowiecki, saved by Bernier
  18. P1 13:21Shot by Chlapik, saved by Bernier
  19. P1 13:25Shot by Hainsey, saved by Bernier
  20. P1 15:05Shot by Ennis, saved by Bernier
  21. P1 15:06Shot by Brown, saved by Bernier
  22. P1 16:19Shot by Fabbri, saved by Nilsson
  23. P1 16:48Shot by Nielsen, saved by Nilsson
  24. P1 17:21Hirose: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: DET Nielsen, Ericsson, Bowey, Perlini, Hirose · OTT Borowiecki, DeMelo, Pageau, Namestnikov, Brown

  25. P1 18:32Goal by Filppula (Helm)4v5+16 pts WP

    On ice: DET Filppula, Helm, McIlrath, Bowey · OTT Brown, Duclair, Chabot, Brown, Tkachuk

  26. P1 18:40Shot by Bowey, saved by Nilsson4v5
  27. P1 19:16Shot by Namestnikov, saved by Bernier4v5
  28. P1 19:25Shot by Pageau, saved by Bernier
  29. P1 19:25White: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Nielsen, Glendening, Bowey, Hronek, Hirose · OTT DeMelo, Pageau, Namestnikov, White, Veronneau

  30. P1 0:00Period end5v4
  31. P2 0:00Period start
  32. P2 0:58Shot by Mantha, saved by Nilsson5v4
  33. P2 1:16Shot by Namestnikov, saved by Bernier5v4
  34. P2 2:30Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Bernier
  35. P2 2:47Shot by Nielsen, saved by Nilsson
  36. P2 3:35Shot by Chlapik, saved by Bernier
  37. P2 4:18Shot by Veronneau, saved by Bernier
  38. P2 5:00Goal by Duclair (Brown)+17 pts WP

    On ice: DET Filppula, Green, Glendening, Erne, Hronek · OTT DeMelo, Duclair, Chabot, Brown, Tkachuk

  39. P2 5:20Namestnikov: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: DET McIlrath, Bertuzzi, Mantha, Larkin, Cholowski · OTT Hainsey, Ennis, Goloubef, Namestnikov, White

  40. P2 5:20Mantha: Slashing (2 min)5v4

    On ice: DET McIlrath, Bertuzzi, Mantha, Larkin, Cholowski · OTT Hainsey, Ennis, Goloubef, Namestnikov, White

  41. P2 5:43Shot by Brown, saved by Bernier4v4
  42. P2 5:57Goal by Pageau, unassisted4v4+23 pts WP

    On ice: DET Bowey, Larkin, Fabbri, Cholowski · OTT DeMelo, Pageau, Brown, Chabot

  43. P2 8:49Shot by Borowiecki, saved by Bernier
  44. P2 9:52Shot by Cholowski, saved by Nilsson
  45. P2 10:14Shot by McIlrath, saved by Nilsson
  46. P2 10:22Goal by Tkachuk (Duclair)+15 pts WP

    On ice: DET Filppula, McIlrath, Athanasiou, Fabbri, Cholowski · OTT DeMelo, Duclair, Chabot, Brown, Tkachuk

  47. P2 10:49Shot by Bowey, saved by Nilsson
  48. P2 12:22Shot by Brown, saved by Bernier
  49. P2 12:39Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Bernier
  50. P2 13:01Brown: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Ericsson, Glendening, Athanasiou, Erne, Bowey · OTT DeMelo, Duclair, Chabot, Brown, Tkachuk

  51. P2 14:12Shot by Mantha, saved by Nilsson5v4
  52. P2 14:32Shot by Hronek, saved by Nilsson5v4
  53. P2 14:39Shot by Perlini, saved by Nilsson5v4
  54. P2 15:10Shot by Brown, saved by Bernier
  55. P2 15:30Shot by Glendening, saved by Nilsson
  56. P2 15:47Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Bernier
  57. P2 15:57Shot by Hirose, saved by Nilsson
  58. P2 16:17Perlini: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: DET McIlrath, Perlini, Larkin, Cholowski, Hirose · OTT Borowiecki, Pageau, Brown, Paul, Zaitsev

  59. P2 16:32Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Bernier4v5
  60. P2 16:42Shot by Brown, saved by Bernier4v5
  61. P2 16:55Shot by Nielsen, saved by Nilsson4v5
  62. P2 16:55Shot by Nielsen, saved by Nilsson4v5
  63. P2 17:40Shot by DeMelo, saved by Bernier4v5
  64. P2 17:53Shot by Duclair, saved by Bernier4v5
  65. P2 0:00Period end
  66. P3 0:00Period start
  67. P3 3:33Shot by Hronek, saved by Nilsson
  68. P3 3:38Shot by Hronek, saved by Nilsson
  69. P3 4:49Shot by Larkin, saved by Nilsson
  70. P3 4:57Shot by Mantha, saved by Nilsson
  71. P3 5:01Shot by Larkin, saved by Nilsson
  72. P3 5:16Shot by Mantha, saved by Nilsson
  73. P3 8:53Shot by Cholowski, saved by Nilsson
  74. P3 9:02Shot by Fabbri, saved by Nilsson
  75. P3 9:28Shot by Larkin, saved by Nilsson
  76. P3 9:45Shot by McIlrath, saved by Nilsson
  77. P3 11:58Shot by Mantha, saved by Nilsson
  78. P3 12:47Shot by Athanasiou, saved by Nilsson
  79. P3 14:32Shot by Larkin, saved by Nilsson
  80. P3 14:33Shot by Larkin, saved by Nilsson
  81. P3 15:01Shot by Brown, saved by Bernier
  82. P3 15:34Shot by Namestnikov, saved by Bernier
  83. P3 16:25Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Bernier
  84. P3 17:14Goal by Mantha (Hronek, Athanasiou)6v5+6 pts WP

    On ice: DET Athanasiou, Bertuzzi, Mantha, Larkin, Fabbri, Hronek · OTT Borowiecki, Tierney, Brown, Paul, Zaitsev

  85. P3 18:46Shot by Mantha, saved by Nilsson6v5
  86. P3 0:00Period end
  87. P3 0:00Final