Wed, Nov 20, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 2, Montréal Canadiens 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 03 | 111 | 09 | 11 | 224 |
| MTL | 012 | 114 | 09 | 01 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:44MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 9:55OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Tyler Ennis, Mark Borowiecki · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- OT 0:38OTTBrady TkachukGWGAssists: Chris Tierney, Nikita Zaitsev · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 0:58MTLVictor Mete: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 19:09OTTNikita Zaitsev: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:51MTLBrett Kulak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brown won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Chlapik – Veronneau3:34
xG 0.09–0.00 (95%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pageau – Brown – Paul5:56
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tierney – White2:33
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Duclair – Brown – Tkachuk7:01
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Goloubef7:39
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Chabot12:09
xG 0.28–0.66 (30%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Zaitsev12:15
xG 0.54–0.98 (35%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestWeal – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi7:00
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Armia – Domi – Suzuki8:55
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault8:15
xG 0.49–0.16 (76%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Cousins – Hudon5:28
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot13:40
xG 1.18–0.06 (95%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Kulak – Fleury7:20
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Petry – Mete12:28
xG 0.62–0.75 (45%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).