Thu, Nov 21, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 3, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 010 | 18 | 28 | 326 |
| DAL | 013 | 39 | 214 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:37DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Andrej Sekera, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 9:43DALJason DickinsonAssists: Taylor Fedun, Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 13:19DALRadek FaksaAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 13:58WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 8:35WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Tucker Poolman, Mathieu Perreault · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 15:14WPGLuca SbisaAssists: Andrew Copp, Nathan Beaulieu · Snap, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 15:39DALJamie BennGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 19:25DALTyler SeguinENAssists: Jason Dickinson, Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.66 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:41DALAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:43WPGMathieu Perreault: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 17:53DALMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:02WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Ehlers2:57
xG 0.34–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Roslovic3:42
xG 0.22–0.13 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Shaw – Gustafsson – Luoto2:14
xG 0.03–0.09 (22%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Perreault – Lowry – Copp7:50
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Pionk15:34
xG 1.19–0.43 (73%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Sbisa – Beaulieu12:15
xG 0.36–0.95 (27%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Poolman – Morrissey18:03
xG 0.41–1.25 (25%)attempts 13–15goals 1–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Radulov – Gurianov8:44
xG 0.82–0.29 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Perry – Janmark – Dickinson8:10
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Benn – Dowling – Seguin10:17
xG 0.77–0.56 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa7:58
xG 0.25–0.27 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Heiskanen13:26
xG 1.32–0.32 (80%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Fedun – Lindell11:23
xG 0.51–0.42 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Lindell – Heiskanen5:56
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).