Sat, Nov 23, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Calgary Flames 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 03 | 213 | 03 | 1 | 327 |
| PHI | 08 | 118 | 19 | 03 | 0 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:26PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Travis Sanheim, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P3 1:01CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 16:14PHIKevin HayesAssists: Joel Farabee · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 18:37CGYElias LindholmAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Joel Farabee stopped
- 2. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. CGY Matthew Tkachuk scored
- 5. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:52CGYZac Rinaldo: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:50PHITravis Sanheim: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:10CGYMichael Stone: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:06PHIJoel Farabee: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:28CGYMichael Stone: Interference2 min
- P3 8:41PHITravis Konecny: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Rinaldo – Jankowski2:11
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Jankowski – Mangiapane2:09
xG 0.08–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk3:09
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan13:01
xG 0.46–0.85 (35%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Davidson – Kylington7:05
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Davidson – Hanifin2:50
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Giordano – Andersson14:46
xG 0.46–0.70 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Lindblom12:58
xG 0.89–0.32 (74%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Pitlick – Raffl6:28
xG 0.51–0.05 (92%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Konecny – Frost9:58
xG 0.78–0.50 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Hayes – Laughton – Farabee10:49
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim11:33
xG 0.82–0.17 (83%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Hagg – Myers9:31
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Provorov15:32
xG 0.52–0.45 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).