Sun, Nov 24, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 4, Arizona Coyotes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 115 | 18 | 111 | 03 | 1 | 437 |
| ARI | 116 | 26 | 07 | 01 | 0 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:05EDMJames NealPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 9:43ARICarl SoderbergPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:22EDMAlex ChiassonAssists: Sam Gagner, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 11:52ARIChristian FischerAssists: Michael Grabner, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 13:25ARIVinnie HinostrozaAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jakob Chychrun · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 13:12EDMMarkus GranlundAssists: Patrick Russell · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ARI Nick Schmaltz stopped
- 2. EDM Connor McDavid scored
- 3. ARI Conor Garland stopped
- 4. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
- 5. ARI Vinnie Hinostroza stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 1:41ARINick Schmaltz: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 2:49EDMPatrick Russell: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:47EDMJoakim Nygard: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Gagner – Chiasson12:41
xG 0.79–0.13 (86%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Granlund – Russell – Haas7:17
xG 0.72–0.25 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid19:17
xG 0.73–0.70 (51%)attempts 23–15goals 0–1
- Sheahan – Archibald – Nygard7:25
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Jones17:13
xG 0.78–0.60 (56%)attempts 18–15goals 2–1
- Nurse – Bear18:25
xG 0.74–0.65 (53%)attempts 21–15goals 0–1
- Russell – Larsson15:19
xG 0.62–0.58 (51%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Grabner – Fischer10:23
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Dvorak13:42
xG 0.48–0.67 (42%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Kessel – Schmaltz – Keller11:40
xG 0.07–0.47 (13%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Garland – Hayton9:53
xG 0.49–0.91 (35%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun18:55
xG 0.94–0.84 (53%)attempts 21–19goals 2–0
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin12:00
xG 0.69–0.96 (42%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson21:23
xG 0.41–1.01 (29%)attempts 13–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).