Mon, Nov 25, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Minnesota Wild 2, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 012 | 12 | 114 | 00 | 228 |
| NYR | 19 | 010 | 111 | 11 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:50NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 17:11MINZach PariseAssists: Kevin Fiala, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 10:00MINRyan DonatoAssists: Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 17:10NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- OT 0:32NYRTony DeAngeloGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:03NYRBoo Nieves: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:10MINKevin Fiala: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:45NYRChris Kreider: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:46MINJordan Greenway: Interference2 min
- P2 11:24MINMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:52MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Fiala12:12
xG 0.74–0.10 (88%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin13:48
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Zuccarello – Zucker11:55
xG 0.46–0.49 (48%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Rask – Hartman – Donato6:46
xG 0.54–0.60 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba19:40
xG 0.77–0.43 (64%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Suter – Spurgeon19:15
xG 1.07–0.74 (59%)attempts 20–21goals 1–0
- Hunt – Soucy9:32
xG 0.57–0.62 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Strome – Panarin8:00
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Lemieux – Chytil7:54
xG 0.76–0.67 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Lemieux – Howden – Kakko3:11
xG 0.02–0.03 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kreider – Strome – Buchnevich5:52
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- DeAngelo – Hajek7:04
xG 0.03–0.22 (12%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren11:36
xG 0.18–0.45 (29%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Skjei – Trouba16:03
xG 0.55–1.22 (31%)attempts 18–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).