Wed, Nov 27, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
St. Louis Blues 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 012 | 213 | 28 | 433 |
| TBL | 010 | 212 | 113 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:53TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 5:31STLOskar SundqvistSHAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 8:40STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 11:39TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 8:21STLZachary SanfordAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 11:07STLBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, David Perron · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 14:23TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 4:24STLZachary Sanford: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:29STLAlex Pietrangelo: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:20STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:02TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:18TBLYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:12STLRobert Thomas: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Thomas12:56
xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – MacEachern – de la Rose5:05
xG 0.22–0.05 (83%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Bozak – Sundqvist – Barbashev7:11
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford12:12
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Dunn7:57
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn2:17
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo10:53
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point12:11
xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli2:27
xG 0.15–0.05 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Maroon – Conacher – Paquette2:08
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Conacher – Cirelli2:29
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev4:11
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Hedman7:48
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:07
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).