Fri, Nov 29, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Winnipeg Jets 3, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 04 | 27 | 19 | 320 |
| ANA | 04 | 013 | 07 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:08WPGNeal PionkPPGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 9:13WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 1:51WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.17 xG3–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:43WPGAnthony Bitetto: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:43ANAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:43WPGAnthony Bitetto: Interference2 min
- P1 2:43ANAErik Gudbranson: Instigator2 min
- P1 2:43ANAErik Gudbranson: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:14WPGJoona Luoto: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:30WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:28ANANick Ritchie: Charging2 min · PPG
- P3 5:33ANAKorbinian Holzer: Interference2 min
- P3 9:01ANAKorbinian Holzer: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:35ANAErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:35ANAErik Gudbranson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Lowry – Copp8:54
xG 0.94–0.25 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic11:05
xG 0.16–0.17 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Shaw – Gustafsson – Luoto8:32
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine13:01
xG 0.48–0.78 (38%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBitetto – Pionk3:43
xG 0.28–0.01 (97%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk6:22
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Poolman5:37
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Rakell – Terry9:52
xG 0.60–0.44 (57%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Jones6:43
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney9:54
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Kase – Steel8:03
xG 0.19–0.61 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Gudbranson12:38
xG 0.71–0.60 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Fowler – Larsson2:30
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Holzer – Guhle12:01
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).