Fri, Nov 29, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Arizona Coyotes 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 013 | 110 | 010 | 03 | 1 | 136 |
| VGK | 012 | 112 | 010 | 04 | 2 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:01VGKAlex TuchPPAssists: Nicolas Hague, Jonathan Marchessault · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 14:53ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Alex Goligoski, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. ARI Nick Schmaltz stopped
- 2. VGK Jonathan Marchessault scored
- 3. ARI Conor Garland stopped
- 4. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
- 5. ARI Christian Dvorak scored
- 6. VGK Alex Tuch scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:14VGKNicolas Hague: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:13ARIDerek Stepan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 9:19ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P3 6:31ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:38ARIBrad Richardson: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 13:44VGKWilliam Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:03ARIPhil Kessel: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Dvorak – Garland13:05
xG 0.68–0.19 (78%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Kessel – Keller2:38
xG 0.08–0.02 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Kessel – Hayton6:19
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Keller6:25
xG 0.03–0.15 (18%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson15:03
xG 1.10–0.35 (76%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin14:10
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun14:53
xG 0.18–0.68 (21%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Nosek – Glass3:13
xG 0.15–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carrier – Tuch7:30
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:12
xG 0.64–0.71 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Stone12:05
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTheodore – Hague13:08
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Engelland – Merrill15:43
xG 0.83–1.30 (39%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt17:06
xG 0.05–0.73 (7%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).