Sat, Nov 30, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 112 | 16 | 111 | 329 |
| COL | 311 | 413 | 05 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37CHIBrandon SaadSHAssists: Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
- P1 7:53COLNazem KadriPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 9:18COLNazem KadriAssists: Matt Nieto, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P1 11:08COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Joonas Donskoi · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 2:52COLJoonas DonskoiGWGAssists: Ryan Graves, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 5:50COLMikko RantanenAssists: Samuel Girard, Joonas Donskoi · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–5
- P2 8:28COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–6
- P2 10:38COLTyson JostAssists: T.J. Tynan · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–7
- P2 11:14CHIDominik KubalikAssists: David Kampf, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–7
- P3 14:38CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:26CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:22CHIAnton Wedin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:23COLSamuel Girard: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:23CHIAlex DeBrincat: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:35COLTyson Jost: Holding2 min
- P1 18:37COLRyan Graves: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 14:24CHIErik Gustafsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:35COLCalle Rosen: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:32CHIAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:05COLVladislav Kamenev: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:29COLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Kane – Carpenter – DeBrincat9:42
xG 0.44–0.41 (51%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
- Kubalik – Kampf – Wedin7:44
xG 0.11–0.13 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Toews – Shaw – Saad8:41
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
- Smith – Nylander – Dach7:32
xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seabrook – de Haan11:41
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 17–7goals 0–2
- Koekkoek – Gustafsson12:38
xG 0.14–0.30 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Murphy – Maatta13:56
xG 0.44–0.76 (36%)attempts 8–16goals 1–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Nieto – Compher7:45
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Donskoi – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:31
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 3–0
- Tynan – Kamenev – Jost8:49
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Nichushkin – Bellemare – O'Connor7:25
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Rosen10:23
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Girard10:28
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Graves – Makar8:46
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).