Sun, Dec 1, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 08 | 010 | 129 |
| BOS | 010 | 010 | 314 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58MTLJoel ArmiaUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 6:16BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Anders Bjork, Brandon Carlo · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 10:29BOSDavid BackesPPGWGAssists: David Krejci, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 13:27BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:38BOSCharlie McAvoy: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:13MTLShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 17:13MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:13BOSJake DeBrusk: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:38MTLNick Cousins: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:09MTLNick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi11:43
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Cousins – Domi – Suzuki12:03
xG 0.52–0.55 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault11:14
xG 0.20–0.35 (36%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Thompson – Weal – Hudon7:00
xG 0.06–0.29 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot15:10
xG 0.52–0.06 (89%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Kulak3:16
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Weber – Kulak11:55
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Nordstrom – Lindholm6:54
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Bjork8:49
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Coyle – Heinen – DeBrusk9:59
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Heinen2:29
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo14:06
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy5:19
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Chara – McAvoy11:29
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).