Mon, Dec 2, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Islanders 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 29 | 16 | 110 | 425 |
| DET | 011 | 113 | 07 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:46NYIAnders LeeAssists: Mathew Barzal, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 13:17NYIAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Ryan Pulock · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 10:36DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Zadina · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 16:34NYIJordan EberlePPAssists: Anders Lee, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 13:24NYIJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Pulock, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:12DETDarren Helm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:08NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:31NYIJohnny Boychuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:00NYIAnders Lee: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:43NYIDevon Toews: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:26NYINick Leddy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:26DETFrans Nielsen: Interference2 min
- P2 14:58DETPatrik Nemeth: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:37NYIOtto Koivula: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:43DETLuke Glendening: Boarding2 min
- P3 18:46DETValtteri Filppula: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Ehn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Lee – Barzal11:19
xG 0.60–0.50 (54%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Komarov – Eberle – Koivula3:02
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:22
xG 0.02–0.04 (28%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Nelson – Beauvillier9:14
xG 0.14–0.71 (17%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock9:37
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:47
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy11:28
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Athanasiou – Fabbri4:14
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Fabbri6:06
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Bertuzzi – Larkin3:48
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening2:48
xG 0.07–0.01 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Cholowski11:18
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Biega – McIlrath6:24
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Biega – Hronek2:35
xG 0.05–0.04 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).