Tue, Dec 3, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Arizona Coyotes 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 111 | 29 | 18 | 428 |
| CBJ | 09 | 116 | 110 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:11ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Christian Dvorak, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 2:24CBJDean KukanPPAssists: Sonny Milano, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 9:35ARIChristian FischerAssists: Carl Soderberg, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 16:39ARILawson CrouseGWGAssists: Carl Soderberg, Alex Goligoski · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 2:13CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Cam Atkinson, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 19:25ARICarl SoderbergENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.52 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:46CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:31ARIJakob Chychrun: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 19:24ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Texier won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Dvorak – Garland11:57
xG 0.47–0.21 (69%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Keller11:45
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Fischer9:45
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Kessel – Crouse9:48
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin10:57
xG 0.17–0.20 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun19:18
xG 0.91–0.99 (48%)attempts 16–25goals 1–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson16:42
xG 0.36–0.56 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Texier11:24
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Anderson – Milano – Dubois10:08
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Nash – Wennberg – Robinson5:12
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Jenner – Bjorkstrand12:32
xG 0.47–0.64 (42%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Murray15:31
xG 0.71–0.18 (79%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Jones – Kukan20:18
xG 0.74–0.53 (58%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Harrington – Gavrikov13:24
xG 0.30–0.86 (26%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).