Tue, Dec 3, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 1, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 03 | 111 | 014 | 128 |
| WPG | 18 | 313 | 19 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:45WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Neal Pionk, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 7:56WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Tucker Poolman · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 11:12WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 17:59DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Andrej Sekera, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 19:29WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–4
- P3 13:59WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:36DALAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:23WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P2 16:05DALTyler Seguin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:39WPGPatrik Laine: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:42DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:42DALCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:42WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:42WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:26DALDenis Gurianov: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:56WPGKyle Connor: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Seguin – Dickinson2:31
xG 0.38–0.01 (98%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Janmark – Dickinson3:12
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Janmark – Gurianov4:23
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin6:10
xG 0.05–0.16 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell12:19
xG 1.25–0.60 (68%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen3:33
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Klingberg2:26
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Laine15:31
xG 1.45–0.27 (84%)attempts 17–12goals 3–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic8:38
xG 0.60–0.36 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Shaw – Gustafsson – Luoto5:43
xG 0.01–0.44 (3%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Copp10:56
xG 0.31–0.99 (24%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Pionk16:15
xG 1.09–0.58 (65%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Bitetto – Dahlstrom14:15
xG 0.80–0.31 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Poolman – Morrissey16:40
xG 0.48–1.55 (24%)attempts 12–19goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).