Wed, Dec 4, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
St. Louis Blues 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 014 | 04 | 028 |
| PIT | 115 | 111 | 17 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:39PITTeddy BluegerGWGAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Brandon Tanev · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 19:20PITStefan NoesenAssists: Jared McCann, Dominik Kahun · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–2
- P3 4:59PITAlex GalchenyukAssists: Sam Lafferty · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:44PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:31PITJoseph Blandisi: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:47STLTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:21STLCarl Gunnarsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:49PITChad Ruhwedel: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:32STLZachary Sanford: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:17STLDavid Perron: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 18:53STLVince Dunn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Walker4:44
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Brouwer – MacEachern – de la Rose3:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bozak – Barbashev – Thomas6:55
xG 0.21–0.53 (29%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford6:37
xG 0.11–0.42 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Faulk7:23
xG 0.88–0.50 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn8:55
xG 0.12–0.06 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo2:26
xG 0.19–0.18 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – McCann – Kahun2:38
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Malkin – Guentzel – Simon12:49
xG 0.77–0.42 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Kahun6:42
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese2:40
xG 0.34–0.03 (93%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Pettersson13:46
xG 1.27–0.39 (76%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Letang – Marino14:03
xG 0.75–0.36 (68%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Trotman – Riikola8:41
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).