Thu, Dec 5, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
San Jose Sharks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 19 | 010 | 02 | 0 | 230 |
| CAR | 19 | 19 | 05 | 06 | 1 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Warren Foegele, Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 7:16SJSMarcus SorensenAssists: Joe Thornton, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 10:12CARJake GardinerAssists: Warren Foegele, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 19:42SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Erik Karlsson, Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CAR Dougie Hamilton stopped
- 2. SJS Kevin Labanc stopped
- 3. CAR Nino Niederreiter stopped
- 4. SJS Erik Karlsson stopped
- 5. CAR Andrei Svechnikov scored
- 6. SJS Logan Couture stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:38CARBrett Pesce: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:44SJSBrent Burns: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:50SJSJoe Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:50SJSJoe Thornton: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:50CARPetr Mrazek: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:16CARAndrei Svechnikov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:19SJSErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Sorensen – Labanc9:59
xG 0.83–0.31 (73%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Marleau – Hertl – Meier12:25
xG 0.55–0.51 (52%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Karlsson – Gregor – Gambrell5:18
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Couture – Kane – Goodrow12:58
xG 0.41–0.68 (38%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson18:27
xG 1.27–0.48 (72%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro13:13
xG 0.66–0.72 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Dillon – Simek10:52
xG 0.15–0.52 (22%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foegele – Svechnikov13:03
xG 0.78–0.18 (81%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho12:37
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Gibbons – Dzingel – Bishop2:25
xG 0.04–0.18 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Gibbons – McGinn – Bishop3:12
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Pesce15:54
xG 0.68–0.57 (54%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Slavin17:27
xG 0.65–0.66 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Fleury8:38
xG 0.18–0.36 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).