Fri, Dec 6, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Arizona Coyotes 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 013 | 07 | 013 | 033 |
| PIT | 09 | 09 | 28 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 7:13PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 19:58PITBrandon TanevENAssists: Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.67 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:49PITMarcus Pettersson: Interference2 min
- P1 17:10PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:55ARIVinnie Hinostroza: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:06ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:01PITBrandon Tanev: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:29PITJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:47PITBryan Rust: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Kessel – Crouse8:12
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Fischer8:24
xG 0.11–0.21 (33%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Dvorak – Garland7:17
xG 0.09–0.37 (19%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Keller10:04
xG 0.14–0.45 (24%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Lyubushkin11:28
xG 0.47–0.14 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson17:04
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun15:46
xG 0.28–0.72 (28%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – Guentzel12:17
xG 0.84–0.21 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese10:00
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Noesen – McCann – Kahun8:48
xG 0.11–0.20 (37%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Lafferty – Simon7:29
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Marino13:12
xG 0.80–0.33 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Johnson – Ruhwedel6:20
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson5:45
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).