Sat, Dec 7, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 412 | 15 | 010 | 527 |
| STL | 18 | 011 | 19 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:50TORZach HymanAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 4:25STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 6:51TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Pontus Aberg · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 9:12TORZach HymanSHGWGAssists: Pierre Engvall · Snap, 0.44 xG3–1
- P1 12:57TORJason SpezzaPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P2 9:29TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 2:02STLDavid PerronAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.14 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:56TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:28STLNathan Walker: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:43TORJason Spezza: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:51TORAlexander Kerfoot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:48STLVince Dunn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:15TORJustin Holl: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:59STLTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:59TORTravis Dermott: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner11:53
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Kapanen – Mikheyev9:29
xG 0.61–0.45 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
- Spezza – Petan – Engvall6:50
xG 0.05–0.42 (10%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Aberg – Nylander – Matthews9:31
xG 0.12–0.55 (18%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Barrie – Rielly16:11
xG 0.56–0.58 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Holl13:16
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Ceci – Dermott11:38
xG 0.45–0.82 (36%)attempts 10–18goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Walker4:08
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Bozak – Schenn – Schwartz8:30
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – MacEachern – de la Rose2:35
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bozak – Barbashev – Thomas2:46
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Faulk4:34
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–2
- Faulk – Parayko4:20
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Faulk2:08
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).